Goldsboro, N.C. — As hurricane season ramps up, the National Weather Service (NWS) and National Hurricane Center (NHC) are urging the public to understand how to interpret storm forecasts, watches, and warnings — and why early awareness can be lifesaving.

Trusted Sources Are Key

With days of advance notice often available before a storm makes landfall, having access to reliable information is crucial. Experts stress relying on official forecasts and established media outlets instead of sensational headlines or social media speculation.

The National Hurricane Center remains the gold standard for hurricane forecasting, using advanced tools like satellite imagery, aircraft reconnaissance, and computer models to provide the most accurate forecasts possible. Meanwhile, local NWS offices offer tailored insights into how vulnerable specific communities may be to storm surge, flooding, and high winds.

Officials recommend checking for the latest updates frequently and ensuring Wireless Emergency Alerts are enabled on smartphones to receive critical warnings.

Know the Alerts: Watch vs. Warning

Understanding the terminology used in weather alerts can make a major difference in how you respond:

• Watch = Conditions possible
• Warning = Conditions expected or happening

Hurricane Alerts

• Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours. Begin preparations like boarding up windows and securing loose items.
• Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions expected within 36 hours. Seek shelter or evacuate if advised.

Tropical Storm Alerts

• Tropical Storm Watch: Conditions possible within 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning: Conditions expected within 36 hours. Even without hurricane-force winds, tropical storms can be deadly.

Storm Surge Alerts

• Storm Surge Watch: Life-threatening flooding from rising waters possible within 48 hours.
• Storm Surge Warning: Such flooding expected within 36 hours. Follow local evacuation orders immediately.

Other Critical Alerts

• Extreme Wind Warning: Winds of 115 mph or greater are imminent or occurring. Take immediate shelter.
• Flash Flood Warning: Flash flooding is expected. Move to higher ground.
• Flash Flood Emergency: A rare and life-threatening situation. Do not travel unless ordered to evacuate.
• Flood Watch/Warning: Flooding is possible or imminent.
• Tornado Watch/Warning: Tornadoes are possible or occurring. Seek shelter without delay.

Focus on Impacts, Not Just the Category

Officials warn against focusing solely on a storm’s category. The Saffir-Simpson scale reflects wind speed but not the severity of other dangers like storm surge or inland flooding — often the deadliest aspects of a storm.

Even if a hurricane weakens to a tropical storm, serious threats can persist. Impacts like heavy rain and dangerous flooding can continue long after winds die down.

The Forecast Cone: What It Really Means

One common misconception is that the NHC’s “Forecast Cone” shows the size of the storm. In reality, it represents the probable path of the storm’s center. While the center typically stays within the cone about two-thirds of the time, a storm’s impacts — including wind, rain, and surge — can extend far outside of it.

Final Message: Stay Prepared

With so much information available in advance, preparation remains the best defense. Knowing what alerts mean, having a trusted source for updates, and acting quickly when warnings are issued can save lives.

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